2026 World Cup Odds
AI-generated statistical probabilities from Monte Carlo simulation
Model-Based Title Probabilities
| # | Team | Statistical Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Argentina | 14.0% |
| 2 | Brazil | 12.0% |
| 3 | France | 11.0% |
| 4 | Germany | 10.0% |
| 5 | England | 5.0% |
| 6 | Senegal | 4.0% |
| 7 | Netherlands | 3.0% |
| 8 | Ghana | 3.0% |
| 9 | South Africa | 3.0% |
| 10 | Cape Verde Islands | 3.0% |
| 11 | Belgium | 2.0% |
| 12 | Scotland | 2.0% |
| 13 | Switzerland | 2.0% |
| 14 | Ivory Coast | 2.0% |
| 15 | Mexico | 2.0% |
| 16 | South Korea | 2.0% |
| 17 | Australia | 2.0% |
| 18 | Ecuador | 2.0% |
| 19 | Tunisia | 2.0% |
| 20 | Croatia | 2.0% |
Based on 100 Monte Carlo simulations
About These Probabilities
These statistical probabilities are generated by our Monte Carlo tournament simulation engine. The model uses Poisson-ELO match predictions to sample thousands of possible tournament outcomes. Each probability represents the fraction of simulations in which a team wins the tournament. These are model-derived figures, not market-derived odds.
Learn more about our methodology →View bracket and progression odds
Winner PredictionSee top title contenders