2026 World Cup Odds
AI-generated statistical probabilities from Monte Carlo simulation
Disclaimer: The probabilities on this page are derived entirely from a statistical simulation model. They are not sourced from any sportsbook or bookmaker. This page does not provide betting advice, gambling recommendations, or wagering information. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
Model-Based Title Probabilities
| # | Team | Statistical Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Argentina | 14.0% |
| 2 | Brazil | 12.0% |
| 3 | France | 11.0% |
| 4 | Germany | 10.0% |
| 5 | England | 5.0% |
| 6 | Senegal | 4.0% |
| 7 | Netherlands | 3.0% |
| 8 | Ghana | 3.0% |
| 9 | South Africa | 3.0% |
| 10 | Cape Verde Islands | 3.0% |
| 11 | Belgium | 2.0% |
| 12 | Scotland | 2.0% |
| 13 | Switzerland | 2.0% |
| 14 | Ivory Coast | 2.0% |
| 15 | Mexico | 2.0% |
| 16 | South Korea | 2.0% |
| 17 | Australia | 2.0% |
| 18 | Ecuador | 2.0% |
| 19 | Tunisia | 2.0% |
| 20 | Croatia | 2.0% |
Based on 100 Monte Carlo simulations | Model: mc-integrated-v1
About These Probabilities
These statistical probabilities are generated by our Monte Carlo tournament simulation engine. The model uses Poisson-ELO match predictions to sample thousands of possible tournament outcomes. Each probability represents the fraction of simulations in which a team wins the tournament. These are model-derived figures, not market-derived odds.
Learn more about our methodology →View bracket and progression odds
Winner PredictionSee top title contenders
Last updated: 2026-03-29T15:30:51.134Z