Who Will Win the 2026 World Cup?

See AI-predicted chances for every team to lift the trophy

Title Contenders

Favorite

Argentina

14.0%

Reach Final: 22%

Reach Semis: 32%

Reach QF: 46%

2nd

Brazil

12.0%

Reach Final: 19%

Reach Semis: 31%

Reach QF: 43%

3rd

France

11.0%

Reach Final: 18%

Reach Semis: 27%

Reach QF: 39%

Other Contenders

#TeamWin ProbabilityReach Final
4Germany10.0%14%
5England5.0%11%
6Senegal4.0%6%
7Netherlands3.0%4%
8Ghana3.0%4%
9South Africa3.0%5%
10Cape Verde Islands3.0%7%

Understanding These Probabilities

Win probabilities are calculated using a Monte Carlo simulation of the knockout stage bracket. The model runs 100 iterations, sampling match outcomes based on Poisson-ELO predictions. Each team's win probability represents the fraction of simulations in which that team wins the Final.

Important Notes:

  • These are statistical forecasts based on historical data and team ratings
  • Probabilities update as new match data becomes available
  • Results are informational — not guaranteed outcomes

Learn how our model works →

Full Tournament Overview

View complete prediction hub

Bracket Predictions

See knockout stage forecast

All Team Probabilities

Check every team's chances

Last updated: 2026-03-29T15:30:51.134Z | Model: mc-integrated-v1