2026 World Cup Simulator
Tournament model, methodology, and simulation output
Simulation Methodology
Monte Carlo Engine
The simulator runs 100 iterations of the full knockout bracket. In each iteration, scheduled match outcomes are sampled from Poisson-ELO prediction probabilities. Draws are resolved by a simulated penalty shootout (50/50 coin flip).
Input Data
Match predictions are derived from ELO-based team ratings (a team strength metric) and a Poisson goal-scoring model. Finished matches use actual results deterministically. Group stage simulation results feed into knockout bracket seedings.
Simulation Parameters
Simulations
100
Teams
42
Data Coverage
Full Data
Knockout Matches
0 / 31 finished
Prediction Coverage
0%
Groups Completed
12 / 12
Missing Predictions
0
Full bracket and contender overview
Winner PredictionTop contenders ranked
How It WorksMethodology FAQ